According to a recent analysis by the independent research firm Rhodium Group, China’s actual economic growth in 2025 is expected to be well below 3%, a level far from the official target set by authorities at around 5%. This estimate suggests that the real pace of economic activity could be nearly half the rate presented in government communications.
Experts attribute this slowdown to a sharp contraction in investment, particularly in infrastructure, real estate, and industrial equipment. The decline in these expenditures—central to China’s growth model—reportedly intensified during the second half of the year, significantly weighing on the expansion of an economy that remains one of the largest in the world.
Although upcoming official announcements are expected to confirm that the growth target has been met, the report highlights the presence of a substantial demand shortfall, estimated at several hundred billion dollars, which may not be accurately reflected in public statistics. This discrepancy has fueled doubts about the consistency between certain economic indicators and the growth figures released by authorities.
Analysts also point to a structural contradiction: it is unusual for an economy to record strong growth while simultaneously experiencing persistent deflation, a phenomenon China has faced for several consecutive quarters. This situation reinforces the view that the economic slowdown may be deeper than official figures suggest.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains cautious. Rhodium Group forecasts economic growth of between 1% and 2.5%, well below the more optimistic projections issued by some international institutions. These estimates indicate that China is entering a phase of more moderate and structurally fragile growth.
