The Malagasy government has revised its economic growth forecast downward for 2026, lowering its projection to 3.8% from the 4.8% initially set out in the 2026 Finance Law. The adjustment was announced as part of the revised budget framework and reflects several external shocks that have affected the national economy since the beginning of the year.
According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the revision is primarily linked to the impact of Cyclones Fytia and Gezani, which struck several regions of the country and caused significant damage to productive sectors. Agriculture, a key pillar of Madagascar’s economy, was particularly affected by crop losses and damage to rural infrastructure. Industrial activity also slowed due to disruptions caused by damage to the electricity network in Toamasina and to facilities at the Ambatovy mining complex.
As a result, growth expectations for the primary sector have been revised down to 4%, compared with the previously projected 6.4%. Agricultural growth is now expected to reach 4.1%, while the livestock and fisheries sectors are forecast to expand by a more modest 4%. The revised outlook highlights the direct impact of natural disasters on production capacity and the livelihoods of rural communities.
The government’s updated forecast brings its projections closer to those of major international financial institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Madagascar’s economy could grow by around 3.6% in 2026, while the World Bank projects growth of approximately 3.8%. Both institutions note that the country’s outlook remains dependent on macroeconomic stability, continued investment in strategic infrastructure, and its ability to address recurring climate-related risks.
Beyond slower growth, Madagascar continues to face significant challenges. Inflationary pressures are weighing on household purchasing power, while uncertainties linked to international markets, geopolitical tensions, and climate change remain key sources of vulnerability. Nevertheless, several development partners, including the African Development Bank (AfDB), believe the country retains strong medium-term growth potential, provided it continues implementing structural reforms and strengthens its economic resilience.
The revised economic outlook underscores the difficulties Madagascar faces in sustaining strong growth amid frequent climate shocks and persistent structural constraints. Despite the downgrade, authorities remain optimistic that public and private investments, particularly in infrastructure, mining, and telecommunications, will help support economic activity and foster a gradual recovery in the years ahead.
